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The Strauss and Howe Generations Model

the-strauss-and-howe-generations-model

About a decade ago, I was introduced to the book “Generations” by Strauss and Howe. It’s a stylized social science model for interpreting and possibly predicting social/political/economic, and even military trends. While I put little confidence in the model itself (and wouldn’t bet on it maintaining predictive power in 60 years for example), the authors’ […]

Comparing and Contrasting: DeFi vs ICOs

comparing-and-contrasting:-defi-vs-icos

Comparing and Contrasting: DeFi vs ICOs Decentralized Finance tokens have been leading this general crypto bull run in much the same way that ICOs were a focus of the 2016-2017 bull run. But is that where the analogy ends? Here’s a walkthrough of some similarities and differences. Similarities They reduce ETH circulating supply. Bullish for ETH […]

“Is it priced in?” – thoughts on valuin

“is-it-priced-in?”-–-thoughts-on-valuing-btc-and-the-upcoming-halving

Is the Bitcoin halving priced in?  If so, when did that happen?  Are all future bitcoin halvings priced in today?  I promise to come back to these questions, but first I’ll explore the idea of information and events being “priced in” in traditional asset classes. Pedantry Disclaimer: I oversimplify a bit in this essay, in […]

Millennials and Crisis

millennials-and-crisis

(this is a repost of an essay I wrote in 2016, perhaps more relevant today.) Investors, This is going to be a very strange commentary, almost entirely sociological in nature. I think I’ve found a useful lens to explain a wide variety of emerging social/political/economic puzzles. Why do 70% of Americans think the country is […]