About a decade ago, I was introduced to the book “Generations” by Strauss and Howe. It’s a stylized social science model for interpreting and possibly predicting social/political/economic, and even military trends. While I put little confidence in the model itself (and wouldn’t bet on it maintaining predictive power in 60 years for example), the authors’ […]
Comparing and Contrasting: DeFi vs ICOs
Comparing and Contrasting: DeFi vs ICOs Decentralized Finance tokens have been leading this general crypto bull run in much the same way that ICOs were a focus of the 2016-2017 bull run. But is that where the analogy ends? Here’s a walkthrough of some similarities and differences. Similarities They reduce ETH circulating supply. Bullish for ETH […]
“Is it priced in?” – thoughts on valuin
Is the Bitcoin halving priced in? If so, when did that happen? Are all future bitcoin halvings priced in today? I promise to come back to these questions, but first I’ll explore the idea of information and events being “priced in” in traditional asset classes. Pedantry Disclaimer: I oversimplify a bit in this essay, in […]
Millennials and Crisis
(this is a repost of an essay I wrote in 2016, perhaps more relevant today.) Investors, This is going to be a very strange commentary, almost entirely sociological in nature. I think I’ve found a useful lens to explain a wide variety of emerging social/political/economic puzzles. Why do 70% of Americans think the country is […]
Thoughts on Cryptocurrency Lending
Thoughts on Cryptocurrency Lending There’s two basic models, custodial and non-custodial. The vast majority of options are custodial, and that means a third party has your coins. This entails counterparty risk. What is a reasonable return to lend out your Bitcoin? Is 6% good? Is 15%? It entirely depends on the counterparty risk. You’re not earning […]
Some high level thoughts on cryptocurren...
This essay is an overview of some high level concepts in cryptocurrency governance, followed by some specific examples. Governance: Control and Power Governance is the process by which the members of a community or organization make decisions. More than any other topic, the question of “who runs Bitcoin?” is the one that takes newcomers to […]